The latest data released by the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik) reveals that in March, Indonesia's year-on-year foreign trade growth rate remained negative, but there was a continuous recovery in month-on-month growth. The trade relationship between Indonesia and China stood out, with a significant increase in both year-on-year and month-on-month trade. In March, Indonesia's exports to China and imports from China increased by 95% and 98%, respectively, resulting in a trade surplus with China of $99 million, demonstrating a good trade balance.

In terms of the trade structure, Indonesia's exports to China are primarily composed of resource-based commodities, with a relatively high concentration. Nickel iron, nickel sulfide, thermal coal, and liquefied petroleum gas are the main commodities exported to China, accounting for more than 60% of the total. China's imports from Indonesia rely heavily on nickel products and thermal coal. China's exports to Indonesia are more diversified, with a relatively higher proportion of electronic products and engineering machinery. The top 5 categories of goods account for only 12% of the total, and Indonesia's dependence on imports of Chinese products like phones and bulldozers is relatively high.

Indonesia's foreign trade continues to recover

According to the latest data published by the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency in May, Indonesia's foreign trade continued to maintain a good balance in March 2023. In March 2023, the trade surplus was $2.91 billion, mainly from non-oil and gas commodity trade. The surplus for that month was $4.58 billion, while oil and gas imports exceeded exports, resulting in a deficit of $1.67 billion.

Rapid Import Growth from China to Indonesia

In March 2023, Indonesia's total imports from China amounted to $3.366 billion. This was nearly twice the previous year's figure, even though Indonesia's total imports showed a slight year-on-year decline. The growth rate for imports from China was much higher than China's total exports, which increased by only 6% during the same period. While Indonesia's market contribution to China's exports remains relatively small, it has increased significantly, rising from 1.2% in the same period the previous year to 2.3%.

Indonesian Import Commodity Structure

In January 2023, the top five imports for Indonesia were petroleum products (HS code 2710), crude petroleum (HS code 2709), mobile phones (HS code 8517), integrated circuits (HS code 8542), and wheat (HS code 1001). These five categories accounted for 21.7% of total imports, while the top 20 items made up 39%, showing a relatively diversified product structure. In terms of growth, all the top five imported items experienced year-on-year growth in January 2023. Crude petroleum had the largest year-on-year increase, with an import value of $1.561 billion and a growth rate of 141%. Mobile phone imports have seen year-on-year growth for four consecutive years, but the growth rate has slowed. Integrated circuit imports have continued to grow, with a relatively fast growth rate. Wheat imports have increased since a global food trade tension in 2022.

China's Exports to Indonesia Are Diverse, with a Relatively High Proportion of Electronic Products and Engineering Machinery

In January 2023, the top 20 items of China's imports to Indonesia accounted for only 30% of its total imports. The top five items were mobile phones (HS code 8517), bulldozers (HS code 8429), textiles (HS code 5407), computers (HS code 8471), and flat-panel displays (HS code 8524), making up 12% of total imports. On the other hand, China's exports to Indonesia have exhibited considerable fluctuations. For the top five categories of products, there was negative year-on-year growth in January and February 2023, with some recovery in March to levels seen in January.

Mobile phone exports were growing year-on-year until early 2022, when they declined. In January 2023, exports amounted to $235 million, returning to 2019 levels.

Bulldozer, textile, and computer exports saw significant growth in January the previous year, with year-on-year increases of four times, 1.6 times, and 0.8 times, respectively. However, in January this year, all of them declined year-on-year, with computer exports experiencing the largest decrease, only half of January last year's figures.